As the ground trembled beneath the Galilee and the Dead Sea this week, a sobering reality settled over Jerusalem. Defense Minister Israel Katz has officially designated the coming two years as “critical” for seismic defense, responding to a damning new report revealing that nearly a million Israeli homes remain vulnerable to a catastrophic earthquake. With the Syrian-African Rift showing renewed activity, the government is mobilizing to close a decades-long safety gap.
Seismic Shift in Strategy
- Immediate Mobilization: Following fresh tremors in the North and Dead Sea regions, Minister Katz has ordered a comprehensive national action plan to be presented within two months.
- Infrastructure Deficit: A new report submitted to the Knesset exposes that 810,000 apartments in pre-1980 buildings lack essential structural reinforcement.
- Economic Disparity: Market-driven reinforcement models have succeeded in central Israel but failed the periphery, leaving high-risk zones like the Galilee and Arava exposed.
- Resource Reallocation: The government faces the challenge of reversing years of budget cuts that reduced the National Emergency Authority’s capabilities by over 50% since 2018.
A Looming Threat: The 810,000 Home Deficit
The statistics presented to the Knesset’s Interior and Environment Committee are stark: approximately 80,000 residential buildings, comprising over 810,000 apartments, predate modern seismic safety codes introduced in 1980. Without immediate intervention, the projected “reference scenario” warns of devastating casualties and infrastructure collapse during the next major seismic event.
According to the report prepared for the Real Estate Center, Israel experiences a major earthquake roughly every 80 to 100 years, with the last catastrophic event occurring in 1927. The current assessment suggests that a similar event today could result in thousands of fatalities, tens of thousands of injuries, and a homelessness crisis affecting hundreds of thousands of citizens. Furthermore, critical infrastructure—including power grids, water supplies, and transportation networks—remains vulnerable to collapse, potentially hampering rescue operations.
Compounding the risk is a lack of data. The report highlights that the state currently lacks a fully updated map of these vulnerable structures, relying instead on statistical estimates to gauge the scale of the threat.
Why is the Periphery Being Left Behind?
While luxury towers rise in Tel Aviv, the towns sitting directly on the fault lines—from the Arava to the Galilee Panhandle—face a dangerous economic paradox. The market-driven “TAMA 38” reinforcement model has failed to generate profit in these regions, leaving the most vulnerable populations in the most geologically unstable zones.
The report indicates that between 2005 and 2024, only about 3,900 buildings were reinforced and inhabited under TAMA 38, representing a mere 5% of the structures requiring attention. The vast majority of these projects were concentrated in high-demand areas in the center of the country where land values justify the construction costs for developers.
In the periphery, where the risk of a quake is highest due to proximity to the rift, the economic model collapses. Government funding has been insufficient to bridge this gap. The State Comptroller has warned that at the current pace of government-funded reinforcement, securing all buildings in the ten most at-risk towns could take 48 years—a timeline Israel cannot afford.
Reversing the Trend of Budgetary Neglect
Defense Minister Katz’s declaration of a “critical readiness” period marks a sharp pivot from a decade of resource draining. Recent years saw the National Emergency Authority’s budget slashed by nearly 60%, a trend that must be immediately reversed to empower a unified command capable of managing a mass-casualty disaster.
The report details a troubling erosion in preparedness infrastructure. Between 2018 and 2023, the National Emergency Authority (RAHEL) saw its budget cut from 182 million NIS to 80 million NIS, alongside a drastic reduction in manpower. Similarly, the inter-ministerial steering committee for earthquake preparedness faced a 60% budget cut.
This fragmentation has left local authorities exposed. Data cited in the report reveals that 73% of local authorities—home to nearly half of Israel’s population—are classified as “struggling” or likely to struggle in a mass emergency. Minister Katz’s new directive aims to centralize authority and restore the budgetary might needed to protect the home front.
| Feature | Central Israel (Tel Aviv/Gush Dan) | Periphery (Galilee/Arava/Dead Sea) |
|---|---|---|
| Seismic Risk Level | Moderate | High (Proximity to Rift) |
| Economic Feasibility | High (Land value supports TAMA 38) | Low (Market model fails) |
| Reinforcement Pace | Steady activity | Stalled / Government-dependent |
| Strategic Gap | High private investment | Reliance on limited state funds |
Strategic Readiness Checklist
To meet the ambitious goals set by the Defense Ministry for 2026–2027, the following steps are prioritized:
- Centralize Command: Establish a single governmental body with statutory authority to manage civil emergencies, ending the fragmentation between various agencies.
- Abandon Market Reliance: Develop a direct-funding model for the periphery, acknowledging that private developers cannot fix buildings in low-value zones.
- Map the Danger: conducting an immediate, building-by-building survey to replace estimates with hard data regarding vulnerable structures.
Glossary of Terms
- TAMA 38: A national master plan allowing homeowners to strengthen buildings against earthquakes in exchange for building rights (additional floors), typically executed by private developers.
- Syrian-African Rift: A major geological fault line running through the Jordan Valley, the Dead Sea, and the Arava, identified as the primary source of seismic risk for Israel.
- Reference Scenario: A unified strategic forecast used by defense and emergency agencies to estimate potential casualties and damage from a specific disaster event.
- RAHEL (National Emergency Authority): The body responsible for coordinating the civilian sphere during national emergencies, currently operating under reduced budgets.
Methodology
This analysis is based on a comprehensive report submitted to the Knesset’s Interior and Environment Committee in January 2026, data from the Real Estate Center, and official statements from the Ministry of Defense regarding the January 21, 2026, meeting of the Ministerial Committee for Emergency Preparedness.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has 2026 been designated a “critical year”?
Defense Minister Israel Katz identified 2026–2027 as critical due to a combination of recent seismic activity (tremors in the North and Dead Sea) and the realization that readiness gaps have widened over the last decade. The designation is intended to accelerate funding and planning.
How often do major earthquakes occur in Israel?
Statistically, a powerful earthquake strikes the region every 80 to 100 years. The last major destructive event took place in 1927, placing the current timeframe within the statistical window for a recurrence.
Why hasn’t the TAMA 38 program fixed buildings in the North?
TAMA 38 relies on the free market. Developers reinforce buildings for free in exchange for building and selling new apartments on the roof. In northern towns like Kiryat Shmona or Tiberias, the sale price of new apartments often does not cover the cost of construction, making the projects unprofitable without government subsidies.
The Path Forward
The tremors felt this week serve as a wake-up call that the government is heeding. By shifting from a passive monitoring stance to an active, multi-year national plan, Israel is taking ownership of its geological destiny. The transition from “market-based” hopes to “state-backed” action in the periphery will be the defining factor in whether the home front remains resilient when the earth next moves.
Key Takeaways
- Urgent Timeline: The Defense Ministry has given officials just two months to produce a holistic plan to close readiness gaps.
- Market Failure: The state officially recognizes that private real estate initiatives cannot solve safety issues in high-risk peripheral towns.
- Scope of Danger: Over 800,000 apartments are currently categorized as unready for a major seismic event.
- Budgetary Reversal: Success depends on restoring funding to emergency agencies that have faced years of cuts.
Why This Matters
For supporters of Israel and observers of its national security, this development highlights the state’s internal resilience. While much attention is often focused on external security threats, Israel’s ability to protect its citizens from natural disasters is paramount to its long-term stability. The government’s pivot to address these structural vulnerabilities demonstrates a commitment to the sanctity of life and the protection of the Zionist enterprise across all borders, from the center to the periphery.
